TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter of a professional football game between Cleveland and Tennessee. Each market evaluates different point spreads to determine which team will lead by a specific margin at the end of the first quarter.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Cleveland and Tennessee at the end of the first quarter of their game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin, ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points, for either team. If the actual point difference meets or exceeds the specified threshold for a given market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Only points scored during the first quarter count toward these outcomes. The markets are independent, meaning each evaluates its own criteria separately, and none are dependent on the results of others. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows individuals to express their beliefs and potentially identify mispriced opportunities. It's common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks in response to breaking news or late-developing information, as traders can react instantly. However, sportsbook odds remain a valuable benchmark for comparison.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the most likely spread, and it fluctuates based on supply and demand for each contract. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge on a fair and efficient assessment of the event's probability.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first quarter spread of the Cleveland Browns versus Tennessee Titans game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final official result announced by the relevant sporting authority. The market will determine which contract, representing a specific point spread, accurately reflects the actual result. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Browns or the Titans would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift expectations. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also impact trading activity. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could also cause noticeable price fluctuations as they express their views on the likely outcome.