TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players or teams score at least one touchdown during an upcoming football game between Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Each market focuses on individual performance or defensive scoring opportunities, providing insight into anticipated player contributions and team strategies.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half, including overtime, the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the opening kickoff unless the player records the required number of touchdowns. If the player participates in at least one play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics, regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an at-least payout criterion. This event considers the full game including overtime, and passing touchdowns do not count as touchdowns scored by the passer. Team defense/special-teams selections settle on actual touchdowns, and the player participation exception does not apply to them.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or attempt to balance their risk, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. Over time, prediction markets have often proven more accurate than traditional polls or even sportsbook odds in forecasting event outcomes. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, such as player injuries or weather forecasts, potentially leading to differences from fixed sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the number of touchdowns scored. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices fluctuate, reflecting the collective forecast. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and trading contracts at favorable prices, driving the market toward a consensus view.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the Cleveland versus Pittsburgh game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and their contract settlements shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Cleveland or Pittsburgh teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that favor passing or running plays, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced leading up to the game could also move the market. Finally, significant public sentiment shifts, even those not directly related to on-field performance, can sometimes impact trading volume and prices in this market.