TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:20 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions achieved by specific players during an upcoming football game between Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Contracts pay out based on a tiered scale corresponding to the exact reception count, with higher payouts for more receptions up to a maximum cap.
Each market operates as a scalar betting contract tied to the exact number of receptions recorded by a designated player in the specified game. Yes contracts pay out according to a predefined tiered schedule that increases with the number of receptions, calculated using the formula floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where s represents the official receptions. The maximum payout for Yes contracts is $1.00, and any payout exceeding this amount is capped at $1.00. No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout, ensuring that the total payout for both Yes and No contracts combined equals $1.00. The market resolves to Yes if the actual reception count matches or exceeds the threshold defined in the payout schedule. All markets are independent, with each player's reception count evaluated separately, and the governing league's official statistics determine the resolution.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the number of receptions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. If many traders believe a player will exceed a certain reception total, the price of contracts predicting that outcome will rise. Conversely, if traders think it's unlikely, the price will fall. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official NFL statistics for the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for the players involved will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official stats released by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution. The resolution will reflect the actual number of receptions achieved by each player during the game.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could all shift expectations and influence trading activity. A key player being ruled out would likely cause a substantial movement in the prices for related outcomes. Additionally, any updates on a player’s role within the offense or their recent performance could also drive changes in the market. Analyst reports and public sentiment can also play a role, though the market ultimately reflects the collective predictions of traders.