TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for quarterbacks in a specific football game. It allows participants to speculate on whether certain players will achieve particular yardage thresholds during the match. The outcome depends entirely on the players' performance in the game.
All markets resolve based on whether the named quarterback achieves the specified passing yard threshold in the Cleveland vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that snap is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual passing yards recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all yardage thresholds for both Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson, ensuring consistent evaluation for each specified milestone.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, while this market aggregates the insights of many individual traders. However, discrepancies can exist due to factors like differing risk appetites and information access. It’s common to see this market incorporate information more quickly than sportsbooks, particularly in response to late-breaking news or changes in player status, potentially leading to different probabilities for various outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yard ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of its corresponding contract will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth indicates how much volume is available at each price point, offering insights into potential price movements and liquidity. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price fluctuations.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing yard totals for the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics released by the NFL will be used to determine the winning contract. The market will settle based on the actual passing yards achieved by the players involved in the Cleveland versus Pittsburgh game, with the specific yardage range determining which contracts pay out. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks' health, such as injuries or illness, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could affect passing game strategies and influence trader expectations. Unexpected coaching decisions or alterations to offensive game plans could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in the perceived probabilities of different passing yard outcomes.