TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing attempts made by quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Participants can speculate on whether specific players will exceed certain thresholds of pass attempts during the match. The outcome depends purely on the in-game performance of the named players.
All markets in this event resolve based on the total passing attempts recorded by the named quarterback—either Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson—during the Cleveland vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. For each market, a 'Yes' outcome occurs only if the specified player meets or exceeds the stated passing attempt threshold (e.g., 29+, 34+, or 39+ for Rodgers; 27+, 32+, or 37+ for Watson). If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a snap is taken—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all sub-markets for each quarterback, ensuring consistency in evaluation regardless of the threshold specified.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks often set lines to encourage balanced betting, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likely number of passing attempts. Discrepancies can arise from differing levels of information and analytical approaches used by participants in each venue. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to odds movements that diverge from those offered by sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total passing attempts in the game. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official passing attempt count for the Cleveland Browns versus the Pittsburgh Steelers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics released by the NFL. The final number of combined passing attempts by both teams will determine which contracts pay out, and at what value, based on the contract's strike price. Traders will be able to view the final result and settlement details on Kalshi following the game's completion.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly those predicting adverse conditions like heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact expectations for passing volume. Pre-game reports about offensive play-calling tendencies or strategic adjustments could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any significant line movements in traditional sportsbooks might prompt traders to re-evaluate their positions and adjust their bids in this market.