TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses exclusively on the second half performance of the Cleveland vs Pittsburgh football game scheduled for November 1, 2026. Each market evaluates different point differentials to determine the outcome based solely on the points scored after halftime, including any overtime periods.
The event consists of multiple markets, each defined by a specific point differential threshold that must be met or exceeded by either Cleveland or Pittsburgh in the second half (including overtime) of the game scheduled for November 1, 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team's victory margin in the second half exceeds the stated threshold; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' All markets exclusively consider points scored during the second half and overtime, disregarding any points from the first half. The thresholds vary symmetrically for both teams, ranging from narrow margins (e.g., over 2.5 points) to larger margins (e.g., over 15 points), allowing participants to assess the likelihood of varying degrees of dominance in the latter portion of the game. The governing body's official rules apply, and Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant news breaks or as public opinion shifts. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi often converge with those offered by sportsbooks, as both attempt to accurately predict the outcome of the game. Keep in mind that prediction markets allow you to take either side of the spread.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price reflects the collective expectation of all participants, and changes based on supply and demand for contracts predicting each side of the spread. Currently, the market indicates what probability traders are assigning to Pittsburgh winning the 2nd half by over 10.5 points. The 24-hour volume of $34,293 shows the level of recent trading activity in this market.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread for the second half of the Cleveland versus Pittsburgh game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official NFL results will serve as the basis for verifying the outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of their trade, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. The market will close prior to the game's completion.
Numerous signals could move this market before its resolution around Nov 1, 2026. Significant injuries to key players on either team are a primary catalyst, as they directly impact the expected performance. Changes in betting odds from traditional sportsbooks could also influence trader behavior. Unexpected news regarding coaching decisions or player suspensions could also cause shifts. Furthermore, in-game events during the first half, such as a surprising score differential or a key turnover, could lead to rapid adjustments in the price of this market.