TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 2:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance gap between Cleveland and Pittsburgh in the first half of their scheduled football game. Each market focuses on different point differentials to determine outcomes based on which team leads and by how much.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the first half of the Cleveland vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin, with outcomes determined solely by points scored during the first half. If Pittsburgh wins by exceeding the specified margin—from over 2.5 points up to over 13.5 points—the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Cleveland wins by exceeding margins from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points, the relevant market resolves to Yes. No other factors, such as overtime or full-game results, influence these resolutions. Only first-half points count, and all markets operate independently, each evaluating its specific threshold for a Yes outcome.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price in this market will move to reflect that collective opinion. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of information becomes public, or when there’s strong public sentiment about a particular outcome. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the actual first-half spread will be above or below the spread offered in the market. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the probability of a particular outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of that outcome occurring. The market is entirely driven by the collective actions of traders on the platform.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-half spread of the Cleveland versus Pittsburgh game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be compared to the contract's spread to determine winning and losing contracts. Traders who correctly predicted the direction of the spread will receive a payout, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a transparent and verifiable outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in weather conditions, or significant shifts in public opinion could all cause the market to move. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team lineups could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed traders can quickly shift the price, reflecting new information or a change in sentiment regarding the likely outcome of the first half. Monitoring these signals is key to understanding market movements.