TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
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2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the outcome of a professional football game between Cleveland and New York J, focusing specifically on the margin of victory. Each market corresponds to a different possible point differential range, determining whether the game ends in a tie or if either team wins by a specific number of points. The resolution depends entirely on the final score of the game, including any overtime periods.
The markets collectively determine the outcome of the Cleveland vs New York J Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026, based on the point differential between the two teams. A tie occurs if the game ends with a zero-point differential for either team. If New York J wins, the market resolves based on whether their victory margin falls within the ranges of 1 to 6 points, 7 to 14 points, or 15 or more points. Conversely, if Cleveland wins, the resolution depends on whether their margin of victory is between 1 to 6 points, 7 to 14 points, or 15 or more points. All outcomes are evaluated using the full game score, including any overtime periods, and the markets are exclusively focused on the point differential without considering any other factors. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the Cavaliers-Knicks winning margin. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of each market. It’s common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than sportsbook odds, as they are continuously updated by traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing specific winning margins. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that margin occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more trades occur, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability, offering a real-time assessment of the potential game result. The current price reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on the platform.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point differential between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning margin will be determined by the official game statistics, and the contracts corresponding to the correct margin will pay out to their holders. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution of this market. The event's outcome will be publicly available shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Cavaliers or the Knicks would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance leading up to the game, such as winning or losing streaks, could also shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or player rotations could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could quickly move the price, reflecting new information or a change in sentiment regarding the Cavaliers-Knicks winning margin.