TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:30 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track receiving yardage performance by individual players in an upcoming football game between Cleveland and New York. Payouts scale with each player's total receiving yards, using a tiered structure that rewards higher yardage achievements more significantly. Contracts settle based on official game statistics.
Contracts pay out based on a player's receiving yards in the specified game, using a cubic scaling formula that increases payouts progressively with higher yardage thresholds. Each tier represents a range of 10 receiving yards, with payouts calculated as floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000, where y is the minimum of 200 and 10 times the floor of official yards divided by 10. The maximum payout for Yes contracts is $1.00, while No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Negative yardage results pay Yes contracts $0.00. All markets resolve to Yes upon settlement, with Kalshi explicitly disclaiming affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and specialized knowledge. Sportsbooks set their odds to balance action and ensure profitability, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments. It’s common to see this market odds move in response to news, injuries, or changes in player performance, potentially leading to discrepancies with sportsbook offerings. Polls and analysts often underestimate the impact of collective intelligence, which is a key strength of prediction markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth indicates the volume of buy and sell orders at various price points, providing insight into the liquidity and potential price volatility of the market.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual receiving yardage achieved by the relevant players in the specified game. The platform will use official data sources to determine the winning contracts and distribute payouts to traders who correctly predicted the outcome. It's important to monitor official sources for the final statistics as they become available following the game's completion.
Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to resolution. Player injuries are a major catalyst, as the absence of a key receiver would drastically alter expectations. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could impact passing game strategies and receiving yardage totals. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive play-calling could also move the market. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in trader sentiment and price fluctuations.