TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players achieve a minimum longest reception distance during a football game between Cleveland and New York. Each player's performance is evaluated independently to determine if they meet or exceed their designated yardage threshold.
The event evaluates multiple players' longest receptions during the Cleveland vs New York J Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 11, 2026. For each player listed, the market resolves to Yes if that player records a longest reception exceeding their specified yardage threshold during the game. If a player is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined solely by whether their longest reception meets or exceeds the set threshold. All markets operate independently, with each player's performance assessed separately against their individual criteria.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It's common to see initial discrepancies between the two, as sportsbooks react quickly to news and public betting patterns, whereas this market may take longer to fully incorporate new information. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which player will achieve the longest reception. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that player winning, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people believe a player is likely to have the longest reception, the price of their contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy. Traders will then be paid out or have their funds forfeited based on whether their chosen player had the longest reception.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or weather conditions impacting the passing game could shift expectations. Significant media coverage or expert analysis highlighting a particular player’s potential could also drive volume and price changes. Unexpected developments during the game itself, such as a key receiver being heavily targeted, would immediately impact this market. Monitoring these signals can provide insight into potential trading opportunities.