TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:40 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks passing yard milestones for specific quarterbacks in a professional football game. Each market evaluates whether a player reaches a defined yardage threshold during the match. Outcomes depend strictly on in-game performance metrics.
All markets resolve based on whether the named quarterback achieves a specified passing yard threshold in the Cleveland vs New York J game scheduled for Oct 11, 2026. If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a snap occurs—even if later nullified by penalty—resolution depends solely on actual passing yards accumulated during play. These rules apply uniformly across all yardage thresholds for both Geno Smith and Deshaun Watson.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which may be influenced by factors like public perception or early betting action. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals trading contracts. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges or as traders react to different signals. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on the likely outcome of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as profitable trades depend on correctly assessing the likelihood of various yardage totals. The current market price represents the collective forecast of all participants, making it a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing yardage total for the Cleveland versus New York game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will serve as the basis for determining the winning contracts. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the game concludes, and all contracts will be settled accordingly.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. News regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly those predicting adverse conditions, could also impact expectations for passing yardage. Late-breaking reports about team strategies or defensive adjustments could also shift the market. Finally, any significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price changes.