TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how often passes are intercepted by the opposing team. It highlights the risk and accuracy associated with each quarterback's throwing decisions during the match.
All markets resolve based on the number of passing interceptions recorded by the named quarterback in the Cleveland vs New York J Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 11, 2026. If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual interceptions recorded during the game. Each market has a specific threshold for resolution: markets resolve to 'Yes' if the quarterback records the designated number of interceptions or more. These rules ensure clarity in scenarios where a quarterback might not play, and they bind resolution to actual in-game performance once playing time begins.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe an outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It's common to see prediction markets outperform traditional sportsbooks in accuracy, as they incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives. However, sportsbook odds can still offer valuable insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the crowd believes is the true probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people want to buy contracts predicting a certain number of interceptions, the price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism provides a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing interceptions thrown during the Cleveland vs New York Jets game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and their contract payouts shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released. This market provides a way to put your predictions to the test.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game takes place. Any news regarding the quarterbacks' health or playing status – for either the Browns or the Jets – would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be rainy or windy, could also affect passing game strategies and, therefore, the number of interceptions. Unexpected reports about defensive schemes or key player matchups could also move the market. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could signal shifts in sentiment and drive price changes.