TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:48 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with receivers. Bettors can speculate on whether a player will meet certain completion thresholds, adding an analytical layer to watching the game.
All markets in this event resolve based on the number of passing completions achieved by the named quarterback—Geno Smith or Deshaun Watson—during the Cleveland vs New York J Professional Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold (16+, 21+, or 26+ for Geno Smith; 15+, 20+, or 25+ for Deshaun Watson), and resolves to 'Yes' if the player meets or exceeds that threshold. If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly based on the actual number of completions recorded during the game. These rules apply independently to each market, allowing for varied betting outcomes depending on performance benchmarks.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise from differing information sources, varying levels of expertise among bettors, and the potential for market manipulation – though Kalshi has measures to mitigate this. If you find a significant difference, it may signal an opportunity for value, depending on your own assessment of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different completion totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the probability that the actual number of completions will fall within that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price movements. This creates a real-time assessment of the likely outcome, distinct from static odds offered elsewhere.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions recorded by the official game statistics will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the league, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and any associated payouts shortly after the game concludes and the data is finalized.
Several factors could influence this market before the game is played. Any news regarding the quarterbacks' health, such as injuries or illness, would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could also impact the passing game and shift trader sentiment. Unexpected coaching decisions or reports about offensive strategies could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking news about key receivers or offensive linemen could also move the market as traders adjust their expectations.