TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which player or team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific participant, with the outcome determined by who crosses the goal line first during the match.
All markets resolve based on whether the specified player or team scores the first touchdown in the game. If the designated participant is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a participant takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to whether they score the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored in the entire game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other participant markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all individual player and team markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs. Consequently, you may see discrepancies between the implied probabilities on Kalshi and those offered by sportsbooks, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities as the event approaches.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player who officially scores the first touchdown in the Cleveland versus New York game, as recorded by official game statistics, will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official game records and will not be subject to debate or interpretation. It’s important to monitor the game closely as the event nears resolution.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift the probabilities. A key player being ruled out would likely cause a substantial movement in the odds. Additionally, late-breaking news about a player's health or performance could also drive trading activity. Public sentiment and expert analysis leading up to the game will also play a role in shaping the price action in this market.