TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
New Orleans wins by over 2.5 points
- Kalshi
New Orleans wins by over 2.5 points - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 8, 2026
Time left: 05d:17h:30m
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This set of markets tracks the outcome of a professional football game between Cleveland and New Orleans, focusing specifically on the margin of victory. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold, allowing participants to bet on whether the winning team will exceed that margin.
All markets resolve based on the final score of the Cleveland vs New Orleans Pro Football game scheduled for November 8, 2026. Each individual market has a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team for that market to resolve to 'Yes.' If the winning team's victory margin is equal to or less than the threshold, the market resolves to 'No.' The markets cover a range of margins from a win by more than 1.5 points up to a win by more than 20.5 points, offering varied levels of risk and potential return depending on the expected closeness or decisiveness of the game outcome. All secondary rules clarify that the platform is not officially affiliated with the governing league and that all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like house biases or public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting action, while this market represents what traders believe will actually happen. Over time, prediction market prices tend to be more accurate than traditional point spreads, especially as more information becomes available and the event draws nearer. However, discrepancies can exist due to differing liquidity and participant expertise. It's valuable to compare both to gain a comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by new information, analysis, and shifts in sentiment regarding the game’s likely outcome. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a dynamic and responsive pricing environment.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Cleveland versus New Orleans game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the NFL, and will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders who correctly predicted the final spread will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the official NFL results following the game to understand the final settlement.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also influence the spread. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced by either team could also move the market. Finally, significant betting activity – a large influx of volume on one side of the spread – could also drive price changes. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential market movements before Nov 8, 2026.