TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 12:06 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the total runs scored in the first 5 innings of the Cleveland Guardians versus Chicago White Sox baseball game will be over or under 4.5. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to “Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5”. Resolution will be based on the official score reported at https://www.mlb.com/scores. Keep an eye on the game itself, scheduled for October 8 at 3:33AM ET, as the first five innings will determine the outcome of this market.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for October 8 at 3:33AM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a ‘vig’ or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket, aims to reflect the true probabilities as perceived by those participating. While sportsbooks may initially set lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, this market can adjust rapidly based on new information and changing sentiment, potentially offering a more accurate forecast of the game's outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a specific outcome. As more shares are purchased for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the aggregated views of all participants, creating a real-time forecast for the Guardians-White Sox game.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Chicago White Sox, as reported by a major sports data provider. The market will determine which outcome – a Guardians win, a White Sox win – is the correct one according to these official results. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in starting pitchers, or weather forecasts impacting playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or player availability would also likely cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, large volume trades from influential traders on Polymarket can create momentum and drive price changes, reflecting a shift in perceived probabilities for the Guardians-White Sox game.