TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 10:54 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the point differential in the final quarter of a college football game, allowing participants to speculate on which team will dominate the last period of play. Outcomes are determined solely by points scored during the fourth quarter, excluding any overtime periods.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the fourth quarter (excluding overtime) of the Clemson vs Florida St. college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold for either team to exceed in that quarter for a 'Yes' outcome. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, the markets resolve to a fair price. Only points scored during the fourth quarter count toward resolution, and Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds due to varying information sources and incentives. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their view, leading to potentially more accurate probabilities. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, offering opportunities for informed traders. Comparing this market to sportsbook lines can reveal where the crowd disagrees with professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring in the fourth quarter. As more traders buy contracts for a specific spread, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their forecasts are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards a fair and efficient estimate of the likely spread.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the fourth quarter of the Clemson vs Florida State game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by sports data providers and will determine which contracts pay out. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect spreads will not. The final score will be the determining factor for this market.
Several signals could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in weather forecasts, or significant shifts in public perception could all move the price. Unexpected coaching decisions or in-game performance during the first three quarters of the game could also impact trading activity. Even general football news and analysis can influence traders’ beliefs about the likely outcome, leading to fluctuations in the price of contracts within this market.