TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score the most points specifically in the fourth quarter of an upcoming football game between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets. It highlights the importance of late-game performance, where momentum and strategy can dramatically shift the outcome of a single quarter.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points during the fourth quarter of the designated Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets game, excluding any overtime periods. If one team outscores the other in that quarter, the corresponding market for that team resolves to Yes. Should both teams finish the quarter with equal points, all team markets resolve to No, and the Tie market resolves to Yes. This structure ensures that only points scored within the fourth quarter count, emphasizing end-game performance over the full match result.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of individual traders. If a large number of people believe one team is more likely to win the fourth quarter, the price for that outcome will rise, potentially moving further away from the initial sportsbook line. However, as the event approaches, these odds often converge as new information becomes available and both markets react to it. It’s a good idea to compare both to get a broader view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived chance of victory. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of the likely winner of the fourth quarter. Trading volume and order flow directly influence these price movements, creating a constantly evolving landscape of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the team leading at the end of the fourth quarter, as officially recorded by game officials, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on the official game results and will be verified against reliable sports news sources and league data. Traders who correctly predicted the fourth-quarter winner will receive a payout based on the final contract price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Browns or the Jets would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in the weather forecast, particularly if conditions are expected to be unfavorable for one team's playing style, could also move the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or tactical adjustments announced before the game might influence trader sentiment. Finally, even public perception and media narratives surrounding the teams’ performance can contribute to shifts in the price of contracts in this market, as traders react to evolving information.