TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:51 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential between the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets specifically during the second quarter of their scheduled game. Each market corresponds to different thresholds of victory for either team, allowing participants to assess varying levels of dominance in that quarter.
All markets resolve based solely on the point difference between the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets during the second quarter of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: markets for the Jets winning by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, and markets for the Browns winning by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points. Only points scored in the second quarter count toward resolution. If the winning team meets or exceeds the specified margin, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets are independent, and no market resolution affects the others. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NFL or its teams.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. It’s common to see prediction markets move more efficiently and accurately reflect new information as it becomes available, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional betting venues.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions on the Browns-Jets 2nd quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market constantly adjusts to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded, and those who misjudge the outcome risk losing their investment.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual second-quarter spread of the Browns-Jets game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread, as determined by official game statistics, will be compared to the contract values traded on Kalshi. Contracts predicting the correct spread will pay out, while those predicting an incorrect spread will expire worthless. The resolution process relies on publicly available and independently verified data to ensure a fair and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Browns or the Jets, particularly the quarterback or key offensive linemen, would likely cause a shift in the market. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they predict adverse conditions like heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the perceived advantage of either team. Finally, any significant line movements in traditional sportsbooks might prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust their predictions, causing volatility in this market.