TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter in an upcoming football game between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets. Each market assesses different point spreads to determine which team will lead by a specific margin at the end of the first quarter.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets at the end of the first quarter of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold for the winning team’s point advantage: markets for the Jets winning by over 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, and markets for the Browns winning by over 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team meets or exceeds its respective point-spread threshold in the first quarter. Only points scored during the first quarter count, and the markets are independent of the final game result. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals. Often, prediction markets are seen as more accurate forecasters of event outcomes, as they incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first quarter. The price of each contract indicates the probability that the actual spread will fall within that range. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief about the likely outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants trading on Kalshi and is dynamic, changing with each trade.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual first quarter spread of the Browns-Jets game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by official game statistics, and the contracts on Kalshi will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. It’s important to monitor the game closely as it progresses, as the final result dictates the outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Browns or the Jets – particularly the quarterback or key offensive linemen – would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they predict adverse conditions, could also influence the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions might shift expectations and affect trading activity. Public sentiment and large bets placed on Kalshi can also contribute to price fluctuations.