TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 3:48 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of the fourth quarter in an upcoming college football game, specifically measuring the point differential between the two teams during that final period. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of points by which either team must win in the fourth quarter to settle the bet.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Cincinnati vs West Virginia college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. For any market where a specified team must win by a certain margin (e.g., Cincinnati by over 10.5 points), the outcome is determined exclusively by the point difference achieved in that quarter. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the official final result of the 4th quarter. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, reflecting equitable settlement under unforeseen circumstances.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes diverge from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the opinions of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can drive the price on Kalshi in the opposite direction. It’s common to see prediction markets offering more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches, because they incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts at different price points. The price of a contract represents the probability of that particular spread occurring in the fourth quarter of the game. As more traders buy contracts for a specific spread, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the volume of contracts available at each price, giving you an idea of how easily you can enter or exit a position. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders on the platform.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the fourth quarter is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of the game. The platform will then determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range specified by each contract. It’s important to monitor official sources for the final result to understand the market’s resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Cincinnati or West Virginia teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they are expected to impact the game's style of play, could also affect trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift market sentiment. Even public perception, driven by social media or analyst opinions, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.