TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 9:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether New England will win its professional MLS soccer game against Cincinnati. Currently, Kalshi gives New England a 74.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 21.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the game originally scheduled for Oct 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the resolution will be determined by the final score at the end of regular time on October 14, 2026.
The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Cincinnati vs New England professional MLS soccer match scheduled for October 14, 2026, determined after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, but not including extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' outcome for either Cincinnati or New England occurs only if that respective team is declared the winner at the end of regular time. If the match concludes with an equal score, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be canceled or rescheduled to a date more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The markets exclusively reflect regular-time results, with no consideration given to post-match proceedings such as extra time, penalties, or award decisions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook is undervaluing a particular outcome, they can express that view by buying contracts here, potentially driving the price away from the sportsbook’s line. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges and influences market participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy contracts for a specific outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in each possible result, providing a dynamic assessment of the game's potential.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Cincinnati versus New England game, as reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will determine which outcome—a win for Cincinnati or a win for New England—is the correct one, based on the final score and official game statistics. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will be paid out based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause significant movement, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect the game's conditions. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game could also impact trading activity. Public sentiment, reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also play a role, though the market often incorporates information before it becomes widely publicized. Major shifts in betting percentages at sportsbooks could also prompt traders to reassess their positions.