TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players score a certain number of touchdowns in an upcoming football game between Cincinnati and Miami. The outcomes depend on individual player performances, with various thresholds for touchdown counts.
All markets are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but not after, the contract resolves to the fair price unless the required touchdowns are scored. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion. This event considers the full game including overtime, and passing touchdowns do not count toward the totals. Team defense/special-teams selections are settled based on actual touchdowns, and the player participation exception does not apply to them. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective predictions of traders, aims to represent the true probability of an event occurring, though discrepancies can still arise due to differing information or risk assessments. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts closer to game time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of the event occurring – in this case, one or more touchdowns being scored. As more people buy contracts predicting touchdowns, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand, with traders expressing their beliefs about the game's outcome through their trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final score of the Cincinnati vs Miami game will be used to determine if one or more touchdowns were scored by either team. The resolution will reflect the official game statistics as reported by reliable sports data sources. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either the Cincinnati or Miami teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions unfavorable for passing, could also impact the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as overall public sentiment and betting trends, could all contribute to shifts in price before the game concludes and this market resolves.