TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players during a football game between Cincinnati and Miami. Contracts pay out based on a tiered scale depending on how many times the player catches the ball, with higher payouts for more receptions. The structure incentivizes participants to predict precise performance levels of individual players.
Contracts pay out based on the exact number of receptions a designated player achieves during the specified football game. Payouts follow a cubic scaling formula where each tier corresponds to a specific reception count, capped at $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. The payout for 'Yes' contracts is calculated using the formula: floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official number of receptions recorded. 'No' contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the 'Yes' payout. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the actual receptions match or exceed the threshold defined for each tier. All payouts are subject to the maximum cap of $1.00 for 'Yes' contracts. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the number of receptions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, risk assessments, or simply variations in public opinion. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular reception total is likely, the higher the price of contracts representing that total will climb. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, analysis, and their own insights, leading to dynamic price fluctuations.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final reception totals for the Cincinnati vs Miami game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution process is designed to be objective and transparent, ensuring a fair outcome for all traders participating in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers on either team would be a major catalyst, as it directly affects their ability to accumulate receptions. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be unfavorable for passing, could also shift the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about defensive strategies or coaching decisions could influence traders' expectations and lead to price movements in this market.