TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:06 PM EST
Kalshi
The markets focus on predicting whether specific players will achieve certain reception thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market tracks a different player's performance, with varying levels of required receptions. The outcomes depend entirely on the players' in-game statistics.
All markets resolve based on the number of receptions recorded by designated players during the Cincinnati vs Miami Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 11, 2026. For any player listed, if they are active but never take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if that snap is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual number of receptions recorded during the game. Each individual market has a specific reception threshold (e.g., 2+, 3+, up to 11+), and if the player meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets are independent, and the resolution for each depends solely on the corresponding player’s performance against their respective threshold.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within the prediction market. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, analysis, and their own insights, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The more a particular outcome is bought, the higher its price becomes, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of various reception totals.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final reception totals from the Cincinnati vs Miami game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as recorded by the league. The market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the actual number of combined receptions achieved by players from both teams during the game. All other contracts will settle to 0.
Several factors could influence this market. Injury reports for key receivers on either team would be significant, as would any changes to the expected game plan or weather conditions. News regarding quarterback performance or defensive matchups could also shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about player availability, even late in the week, can cause rapid price adjustments. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can indicate informed activity and move the market, regardless of external news.