TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Cincinnati and Miami. Participants can bet on whether each player will achieve certain receiving yard milestones, with payouts increasing as the yardage totals rise. The structure rewards higher performance with progressively larger returns.
Contracts in this event resolve based on the official receiving yards accumulated by designated players during the Cincinnati vs Miami Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. For each player market, Yes contracts pay according to a tiered schedule that increases with every 10 receiving yards achieved, up to a maximum payout of $1.00 for 200 or more yards. The payout formula uses a cubic scaling function to determine the precise Yes payout, calculated as floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000, where y equals the minimum of 200 and ten times the floor of the official receiving yards divided by ten. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout, and any negative receiving yard totals result in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. The markets resolve to Yes once the official yardage is confirmed.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook lines but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of opinions and potential inside knowledge. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks to incorporate new information, such as injury reports or weather forecasts. Discrepancies can present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders capitalize on price differences.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing different receiving yard totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher total, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds continuously adapt to new information and changing sentiment. The goal is to accurately forecast the final receiving yardage total.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yardage total for both teams combined will be sourced from official game statistics. Any overtime yardage will be included in the final tally. The market will settle to the nearest whole number of receiving yards. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct total will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their stake. The resolution process ensures a fair and transparent outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers on either the Cincinnati or Miami teams would be a major catalyst, as their absence would directly impact expected yardage. Changes in weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could also affect passing game strategies and, consequently, receiving yard totals. Late-breaking news regarding defensive matchups or coaching decisions could also sway the market. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception or betting trends could drive price movements in this market.