TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully throw the ball for touchdowns. Bettors can speculate on whether a player will reach certain milestone totals during the match. Outcomes depend entirely on in-game play and quarterback efficiency.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing touchdowns recorded by specified Cincinnati Bengals quarterbacks (Malik Willis or Joe Burrow) during the game against Miami on Oct 11, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the named player achieves the exact threshold stated in that market's title (e.g., 1+, 2+, etc.). If a quarterback is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at its pre-game fair market price. Once a snap occurs—even if later nullified by penalty—the market resolves strictly based on actual passing touchdowns recorded during play. All markets are independent; achieving a higher threshold does not automatically satisfy lower-threshold markets, and each must be met individually for resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on models and public perception, while this market allows individuals to trade on their own informed opinions. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the prediction market can adjust more rapidly than traditional sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, with this market sometimes providing a more accurate forecast of the event's outcome as it incorporates a broader range of perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate forecasts risk losing capital. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a market that efficiently aggregates information and reflects the true likelihood of the event.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Cincinnati vs. Miami game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the winning contracts. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result. It's important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.