TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Columbus will win its professional MLS soccer game against Cincinnati. Currently, Kalshi gives Columbus a 90.0% probability of winning, with a 7.0% probability assigned to a tie. The market resolves based on the outcome of the game originally scheduled for October 18, 2026, as determined by the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time—excluding any extra time or penalty kicks—according to Kalshi. Keep an eye on the starting lineups announced on October 18, 2026, as they may signal potential shifts in the expected game outcome.
The markets resolve based on the official result of the Cincinnati vs Columbus professional MLS soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' outcome for either Cincinnati or Columbus occurs if that respective team wins the match within regulation time. If the match ends in a tie after regulation, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The platform explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the MLS or its governing bodies, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different set of information and incentives than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a ‘vig’ or commission into their odds to ensure profitability, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. While both aim to predict the same outcome, this market can sometimes offer a more accurate reflection of true public belief, especially as it incorporates information from a diverse group of participants. It’s common to see differences emerge as new information becomes available and opinions shift.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time indication of expectations. The market’s depth and liquidity, currently at a volume of $1,900,408, influence how efficiently prices reflect available information.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game between Cincinnati and Columbus. The winning team, as determined by the final score, will dictate the settlement of contracts on Kalshi. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning team will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing team will not. The process ensures a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Oct 19, 2026. Key player injuries on either team would likely cause shifts in the odds, as would any significant changes in coaching strategies or team performance. Unexpected news regarding team morale or internal conflicts could also impact trader sentiment. Public opinion, as reflected in polls and media coverage, can also play a role, although this market represents a distinct form of prediction. Major upsets in other college football games could also indirectly affect perceptions of team strength and influence trading activity.