TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by various players in a specific football game between Cincinnati and Baltimore. The outcome depends on whether individual players meet or exceed predetermined reception thresholds during the match.
All markets in this event are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player records the required number of receptions. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers full game receptions including overtime.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to balance their risk, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. Over time, prediction markets have often proven more accurate than traditional polls or expert forecasts. However, sportsbook odds can still offer valuable insights, especially as they adjust closer to the event date, and may present arbitrage opportunities when compared to the pricing seen in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain number of receptions, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions as the event approaches, reflecting the collective intelligence of the traders participating in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final reception totals for the Bengals and Ravens game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts on the correct total receptions will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. The exact payout amount will depend on the final price of the contracts at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the pricing of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would be significant, as would any changes to the expected game plan or weather conditions. News regarding the opposing defenses, such as a key cornerback being ruled out, could also shift expectations. Unexpected quarterback performance in prior games or changes in offensive coordinator strategy could also move the market. Any late-breaking news related to player availability or game strategy has the potential to impact trading activity and, therefore, the price of contracts in this market.