TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether they achieve certain receiving yard thresholds. The outcome depends entirely on the players' statistical performance during the game.
All markets share a common framework where contracts are designated as protected. If a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player meets the specified receiving yards threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all statistics include overtime periods.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven purely by supply and demand from traders who are incentivized to be accurate. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that prediction market traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of certain outcomes. Keep in mind that sportsbooks and prediction markets serve different purposes and attract different types of participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by the collective actions of all traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular yardage range is likely, the higher the price of contracts for that range will climb. Conversely, if traders believe an outcome is unlikely, the price will fall. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage totals for the specified players in the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards will be sourced from official NFL data and will determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the receiving yardage range will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of resolution. The market will then close, and all winning contracts will be settled.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or adjustments to team strategies could all cause shifts in trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player matchups or defensive schemes could also lead to price movements. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could quickly alter the prices, especially as the game approaches. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the latest developments will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves.