TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players will achieve a rushing distance exceeding set thresholds in an upcoming football game between Cincinnati and Baltimore. Each player's performance is evaluated independently, focusing on their longest single rush during the match. The outcome depends on whether they surpass their respective yardage benchmarks.
The event determines if any of the specified players—Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, Joe Burrow, or Samaje Perine—records a longest rush exceeding their individual threshold yards in the Cincinnati vs Baltimore Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. For each player market, if the athlete is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap, regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty, the market resolves based on the longest rush distance they achieve during the game. All markets are independent, meaning the resolution of one player’s market does not affect the others. Kalshi clarifies that it is not affiliated with or endorsed by the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders, aims to represent the true probability of each player having the longest rush. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on statistical models and expert opinions, this market dynamically adjusts as new information and sentiment emerge, potentially offering more accurate probabilities as the event approaches. It's common to see differences, especially as the game draws nearer.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest single rushing attempt during the game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will be considered the winning outcome. Official NFL statistics will be used to determine the longest rush, and any ties will be handled according to the platform's rules. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports are crucial; if a key running back is ruled out, the odds for other players will likely shift. Game-day weather conditions, such as rain or snow, could favor a different running style and influence which player is more likely to have a long rush. Unexpected changes in team strategy or play-calling could also move the market. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in the probabilities reflected in this market.