TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:03 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate whether Joe Burrow will achieve specific passing yard thresholds in a football game between Cincinnati and Baltimore. Each threshold represents a progressively higher benchmark for Burrow's performance, offering different levels of difficulty to predict.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if Joe Burrow participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless he meets the specified passing yard threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If Burrow participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event uses full game passing yards including overtime.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than point spreads or over/unders offered by sportsbooks, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbooks may offer different types of wagers not available in this market, and initial odds can vary considerably before converging as the event draws nearer.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (the price they are willing to buy) and asks (the price they are willing to sell) for contracts representing different passing yardage outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand – if more people want to buy a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market price reflects the collective intelligence of all participants. The current price represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yardage total for both the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the outcome. The market will settle based on the official statistics released by the NFL following the conclusion of the game. Any adjustments or corrections made by the NFL to the official statistics will be reflected in the final resolution of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict strong winds or heavy rain, could impact passing game strategies. Significant news regarding team coaching decisions or offensive play-calling tendencies could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in the perceived probabilities and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.