TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:52 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of passing touchdowns Joe Burrow achieves in a specific NFL game between Cincinnati and Baltimore. Outcomes depend on whether he reaches various thresholds of scoring passes during the match.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if Joe Burrow participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half—including overtime—the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game's kickoff, unless he meets or exceeds the required number of passing touchdowns, in which case the contract settles based on actual statistics. If Burrow participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of his first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers all passing touchdowns, including those in overtime.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which may be influenced by factors like public perception or house biases. Sportsbooks set odds to encourage balanced betting and ensure profit, while this market aims to forecast the actual outcome. Over time, as more information becomes available and more traders participate, the odds in this market tend to become more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds. However, discrepancies can still exist due to differing liquidity and participant expertise.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on their predictions, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on their collective actions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more a particular outcome is bought, the higher its price becomes, indicating a greater perceived likelihood. This creates a fluid and responsive pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the total number of passing touchdowns scored by each team during the official game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts following the game's completion and verification of the data.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either the Bengals or Ravens would likely cause substantial movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict adverse conditions for passing, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking reports about team strategies or defensive adjustments could shift expectations. Finally, significant betting activity or large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price changes in this market.