TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 12:32 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between two college football teams during a specific quarter of their matchup. It focuses solely on the points scored in the second quarter, ignoring the rest of the game. Bettors can speculate on whether one team will dominate the other by a certain margin in that timeframe.
The event evaluates whether Cincinnati or Arizona achieves a specified point differential victory during the second quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of points by which either team must win in that quarter to resolve as 'Yes'. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the second quarter, disregarding any scoring from other quarters. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, the markets remain active and resolve based on the final official result of that game. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's actual commencement. The outcome hinges strictly on second-quarter performance and adherence to these timing conditions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by individuals trading on their beliefs about the outcome. If there's a significant discrepancy, it might indicate that prediction market traders have information or perspectives that sportsbooks haven’t fully incorporated. It's common to see this market align with sportsbook odds as the event approaches, but divergences can present opportunities for informed traders.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread for the second quarter of the Cincinnati vs Arizona game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of $1.00 per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive $0.00.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Bengals or the Cardinals would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift trader sentiment. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could impact the perceived likelihood of different point spreads. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.