TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$236,615,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,344,513,070
577,941
Markets across
14,530
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,090
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a women's college basketball game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Kansas State Wildcats scheduled for March 4, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the outcome of this single game, with resolution based on the final score including overtime.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction: both possible game outcomes (Kansas State win and Cincinnati win) are mapped to the same resolution state (YES), leaving the NO outcome with no valid trigger condition. This makes the market unresolvable and creates settlement ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading Kalshi until the platform issues a corrected resolution criteria. The market cannot be settled fairly as currently written. Polymarket's binary winner-take-all structure is logically sound and should be used as the reference framework for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Clean binary outcome: Cincinnati win resolves to Cincinnati Bearcats, Kansas State win resolves to Kansas State Wildcats. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no makeup resolves 50-50. Final score including overtime determines result.Kalshi:
Contradictory YES/NO structure: both Kansas State win and Cincinnati win are stated to resolve to YES, creating logical impossibility. No valid condition maps to NO resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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