TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks how decisively either team wins during the final quarter of a football game, focusing solely on points scored in that period. It allows participants to speculate on the margin of victory restricted to the last quarter of play, excluding any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential occurring in the 4th quarter of the designated Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins game, with overtime points excluded from consideration. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold that must be exceeded by either team for a 'Yes' resolution. Markets range from thresholds as low as 1.5 points for Cincinnati to thresholds as high as 10.5 points for Miami, allowing participants to assess varying levels of dominance anticipated in the final quarter. The outcome hinges entirely on the scoring margin achieved during this specific segment of the game, with no regard to the overall game result or points scored in earlier quarters.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own analysis and information. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, though discrepancies can occur due to differing information or risk appetites. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 4th quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. Buyers are expressing confidence in that spread, while sellers are betting against it. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price fluctuations are driven by supply and demand; increased buying pressure raises the price, while increased selling pressure lowers it. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread in the 4th quarter of the Bengals-Dolphins game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, and the market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the spread. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result, as this will determine the payout of all contracts within this market.
Several factors could influence the Bengals-Dolphins 4th quarter spread market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the odds. In-game performance during the first three quarters, such as a dominant offensive showing or a surprising defensive strategy, could also lead to adjustments in the market price as traders react to the unfolding events.