TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either the Cincinnati Bengals or the Miami Dolphins specifically during the second quarter of their scheduled game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Miami Dolphins exclusively during the second quarter of the game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold that the winning team must exceed for the outcome to resolve as 'Yes'. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward these markets, meaning any points from the first, third, or fourth quarters are irrelevant. If the specified threshold is met or exceeded by the winning team in that quarter, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The markets cover a range of margins from over 2.5 points up to over 10.5 points for both teams, allowing for varied predictions of the game's second-quarter dynamics.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals freely trading contracts based on their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it may indicate differing opinions on the likely outcome. It's common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks to incorporate new information, as traders react quickly to news and developments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Bengals-Dolphins 2nd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular spread, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic process ensures the market price reflects the collective intelligence of those trading.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the Bengals-Dolphins 2nd quarter spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread difference between the two teams at the end of the second quarter will determine which contracts pay out. The contracts predicting the correct spread will settle at 100, while those predicting an incorrect spread will settle to zero. The market's resolution is based on the official game statistics.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Bengals or the Dolphins would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could affect trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations. Public perception, as reflected in social media and expert analysis, can also play a role.