TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first half of a football game between two teams, specifically examining different point spreads for potential victories. Each market represents a varying threshold of points by which either team must win the half to settle the bet.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential at the end of the first half of the designated football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Miami Dolphins scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market specifies a different point spread threshold, requiring the Bengals or Dolphins to win the half by exceeding the stated margin for a 'Yes' outcome. Points scored during the second half or in overtime do not factor into any resolution. The markets collectively cover a range of spreads from narrow to substantial advantages, allowing participants to assess varying levels of certainty regarding each team's performance in the opening half. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the Bengals-Dolphins 1st half spread. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than point spreads offered by sportsbooks, as they incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups, and discrepancies can occur based on various factors.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome – in this case, the Bengals covering the 1st half spread. As more people buy contracts predicting the Bengals will cover, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, visible on the dashboard, shows the available contracts at different price points, indicating the level of demand and supply. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the Bengals-Dolphins 1st half spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread determined by the game’s final score at halftime. Traders holding contracts on the winning side of the spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing side will not. The exact payout amount is determined by the contract price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Bengals or the Dolphins would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions could affect trader sentiment. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.