TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 9:54 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Mirra Andreeva will win by more than 3.5 games against Qinwen Zheng in their China Open match. Currently, Polymarket gives a 10.0% probability to Mirra Andreeva achieving this game spread. The resolution source for this market is the official WTA Tennis scores website at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Keep an eye on the originally scheduled match time of October 11, 2026 at 7:30AM ET, as this is when the match—and thus this market—is expected to begin.
This market refers to the tennis match between Qinwen Zheng and Mirra Andreeva in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Qinwen Zheng' if Qinwen Zheng advances against Mirra Andreeva. This market will resolve to 'Mirra Andreeva' if Mirra Andreeva advances against Qinwen Zheng. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and public perception, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of informed traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing levels of information, risk tolerance, or simply varying opinions on the likely outcome. If significant differences exist, it may indicate an opportunity for arbitrage, where traders can profit by exploiting the price difference between the two venues. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an event occurring.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for a specific outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to new information and changing perspectives among traders, providing a real-time assessment of the match’s potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the China Open match between Qinwen Zheng and Mirra Andreeva, as declared by the tournament organizers. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome of the match and their holdings in the market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in earlier rounds of the tournament, or even comments from analysts predicting a specific outcome, could also impact the odds. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a change in expectations, leading to price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to Oct 18, 2026.