TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 10:29 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Novak Djokovic will advance against Daniil Medvedev in their China Open tennis match, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match result following the scheduled start time of October 5, 2026, to see if Djokovic advances as currently predicted.
This market refers to the tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Novak Djokovic' if Novak Djokovic advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Novak Djokovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks may set odds based on statistical models and public perception, while this market incorporates the collective insights of informed traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or changes in playing conditions – the prediction market can adjust more rapidly than traditional sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially closer to the event’s start, as traders react to late-breaking news and refine their assessments of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the China Open match between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev, as reported by official tournament organizers. The platform will verify the result against widely available and reliable sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (such as weather impacting the court surface), or even strategic announcements from either player's camp could cause price fluctuations. Unexpected results in preceding matches or changes in coaching staff could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, public opinion and media coverage, while less direct, can sometimes influence trading activity. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the implied probabilities reflected in this market.