TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 3:16 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Hubert Hurkacz will advance against Karen Khachanov in their China Open tennis match, specifically focusing on whether the first set will have over 8.5 games played. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to this outcome. Resolution will be based on the official scores reported at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match itself, originally scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 10:00PM ET, as the outcome will depend on the games played in the first set during that fixture.
This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and Karen Khachanov in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Karen Khachanov. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Hubert Hurkacz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs and adjust prices based on new information. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both platforms. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking and reflect expectations about the outcome, while sportsbook odds can be influenced by factors like public betting patterns.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Hurkacz vs Khachanov match as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The market will determine which player won the match, and shares will pay out accordingly to those who correctly predicted the winner. The process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome, based on established sporting results.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated match analyses from tennis experts could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in earlier rounds of the China Open could also impact perceptions of player form and confidence. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket could create momentum and drive price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how the market evolves leading up to Oct 11, 2026.