TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 11:21 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Elena Rybakina will complete her match against Alina Charaeva in the China Open. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Elena Rybakina completing the match, while the second outcome, Game Spread: Elena Rybakina (-6.5) vs Alina Charaeva (+6.5), is at 0.5%. The resolution source for this market is the official WTA Tennis scores website at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Keep an eye on the originally scheduled match time of October 1, 2026 at 11:00PM ET, as that is when the first results will become available and signal the likely outcome.
This market refers to the tennis match between Elena Rybakina and Alina Charaeva in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elena Rybakina' if Elena Rybakina advances against Alina Charaeva. This market will resolve to 'Alina Charaeva' if Alina Charaeva advances against Elena Rybakina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the views of many individuals with skin in the game. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook odds, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the Rybakina vs Charaeva match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and evolving sentiment surrounding the Rybakina vs Charaeva match. The current volume traded provides insight into the market’s confidence in various potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Rybakina vs Charaeva match as reported by recognized sports authorities. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome. Traders will be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final, verified result of the match. The market will close and settle shortly after the official result is available.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market before the Oct 9, 2026 resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even significant shifts in public opinion could trigger movement. Unexpected upsets in other matches leading up to the Rybakina vs Charaeva match could also impact perceptions of player form and confidence. Major announcements related to player strategies or coaching changes could also contribute to price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves.