TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 8:12 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Jan-Lennard Struff in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Jan-Lennard Struff. This market will resolve to 'Jan-Lennard Struff' if Jan-Lennard Struff advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Jan-Lennard Struff in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Jan-Lennard Struff. This market will resolve to 'Jan-Lennard Struff' if Jan-Lennard Struff advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market represents the collective belief of traders who have skin in the game. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Analyzing these differences can provide insights into where the market believes sportsbooks may be over or underestimating probabilities for the Medvedev vs Struff match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome will drive up its price, indicating a greater perceived likelihood. The market's price discovery process is driven by individual traders' assessments of the Medvedev vs Struff match.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Medvedev vs Struff match as declared by the tournament organizers. The platform will then determine the winning shares and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the match result to understand when the market will be settled and how their positions will be affected. The resolution process ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market leading up to Oct 10, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated match analyses from tennis experts could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players could also impact perceptions of their form and likelihood of success. Significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket could also cause noticeable price movements. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in the market's expectations for the Medvedev vs Struff match.