TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Chiefs vs. Seahawks - First Touchdown Scorer
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Chiefs vs. Seahawks?

Volume:
$5,381,156

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 9:35 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

View
100%
87%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$943,899
N/A
N/A
$584,353
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kenneth Walker III

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$753,937
N/A
N/A
$682,261
Settled
No
polymarket

Kenneth Walker

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Travis Kelce

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$612,854
N/A
N/A
$585,340
Settled
No
polymarket

Travis Kelce

View
0%
95%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Patrick Mahomes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$463,172
N/A
N/A
$449,817
Settled
No
polymarket

Patrick Mahomes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

AJ Barner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$436,167
N/A
N/A
$413,006
Settled
No
polymarket

AJ Barner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Emanuel Wilson

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$369,045
N/A
N/A
$123,257
Settled
No
polymarket

Emanuel Wilson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Noah Gray

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$290,687
N/A
N/A
$280,608
Settled
No
polymarket

Noah Gray

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Xavier Worthy

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$249,286
N/A
N/A
$237,655
Settled
No
polymarket

Xavier Worthy

View
0%
95%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

George Holani

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$210,354
N/A
N/A
$126,282
Settled
No
polymarket

George Holani

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Cooper Kupp

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$206,491
N/A
N/A
$187,619
Settled
No
polymarket

Cooper Kupp

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Rashid Shaheed

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$170,265
N/A
N/A
$165,463
Settled
No
polymarket

Rashid Shaheed

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Cyrus Allen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$97,680
N/A
N/A
$96,545
Settled
No
polymarket

Cyrus Allen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jalen Royals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$94,330
N/A
N/A
$93,397
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 51

Intro

This market tracks which player will score the first touchdown in the NFL game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Seattle Seahawks on October 25th, excluding defensive or special teams scores and including overtime. Currently, the consensus probability that Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba will score first is 100.0%. This forecast aggregates data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on data reported at https://www.nfl.com/scores. Keep an eye on team injury reports leading up to October 25th, as player availability could significantly impact probabilities.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi lists all possible players individually, while Polymarket uses a 'Player A/B/Other' structure, creating SKU risk and potential for missed opportunities.Hero tip: Be aware of the differing SKU structures. Kalshi offers more granular options, while Polymarket's 'Other' market could capture unexpected scorers. Consider hedging.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve 'Yes' if a specific named player scores the first rushing or receiving touchdown. Includes 'Player A/B' and 'Other' options to cover players not explicitly listed. Defensive/special teams touchdowns do not count.
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve 'Yes' if a specific named player scores the first touchdown. Lists *all* potential players individually. Defensive/special teams touchdowns do not count.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

First Touchdown Scorer markets for Chiefs vs. Seahawks.

Kalshi

Each market resolves based on whether the specified player or unit scores the first touchdown of the game. If a participant is active but does not take a snap before the first touchdown, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a participant takes a snap, the market outcome depends solely on whether they score the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored in the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. Touchdowns scored on fake punts or field goals by the offensive team do not count for any market resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert analysis. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information and adjust probabilities based on real-time trading volume. Both offer valuable insights for informed decision-making.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market can differ due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading limits, and fee structure, all of which can influence price discovery. Differences in liquidity and volume between the two venues also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the platforms may attract different types of traders—some more focused on short-term speculation, others on longer-term predictions. These varying dynamics can create temporary or sustained price divergences, even for the same underlying event.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either team—particularly those frequently targeted in the red zone—would likely cause shifts in probabilities. Changes in weather forecasts, specifically conditions that favor a passing or running game, could also influence trader sentiment. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks, may also move the market as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.