TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether Chicago will win by more than 2.5 points in its upcoming game against Seattle. Currently, the probability of Chicago winning by over 2.5 points on Kalshi is 99.0%. The resolution source for this market is the final score difference in the Chicago vs Seattle Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 2, 2026. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve based on the outcome of the Nov 2, 2026 fixture and the final point differential.
All markets resolve based on the point differential in the Chicago vs Seattle Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 2, 2026. If Seattle wins by exceeding the specified margin—from 1.5 to 20.5 points—corresponding Seattle markets resolve to Yes; if Chicago wins by exceeding the specified margin—from 1.5 to 14.5 points—corresponding Chicago markets resolve to Yes. All markets are independent, each tied to a specific point differential threshold. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets tend to be more sensitive to information and less influenced by biases. It's common to see this market move differently than sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the two can offer a more comprehensive view of the expected outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price discovery process is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe the spread will be a certain value, the price of contracts representing that value will increase. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Chicago vs Seattle game. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread matches the contract price, and proportionally less if it differs. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their stake. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Chicago or Seattle teams would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also influence the spread. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in team strategy could also play a role. Finally, public perception and media coverage leading up to the game can affect trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade effectively.