TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$185,665,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,833,875,329
407,365
Markets across
40,470
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,365
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Kalshi
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 11h:31m:30s
$
Receiving yard performance by specific players determines contract values in this football game derivative market. Payout structures accelerate with higher yardage brackets.
Yes payouts increase stepwise per 10 receiving yards: $0.0000 for 0–9 yards up to $1.0000 for 200+ yards. The calculation uses y = min(200, max(0, 10 x floor(s / 10))) with s as official yards, applied to floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000. No contracts receive $1.00 minus Yes payouts. Negative yardage results in $0.00 for Yes. Kalshi asserts no governing league connection.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially in the lead-up to an event. While sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and attempt to account for a profit margin, this market allows anyone to participate and express their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of how each type of market operates. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially exceeding the speed of sportsbook adjustments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard totals, and the price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people believe a player will exceed a certain yardage threshold, the price of contracts predicting that outcome will rise. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the probability that the outcome will occur, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates new information and reflects the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics for the specified game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual receiving yards achieved by the players involved. The resolution will be based on the official data released by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or settle their losing positions based on the final market price.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers and tight ends are major catalysts, as their availability directly impacts potential receiving yardage. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect passing games and, consequently, receiving yards. Unexpected starting quarterback changes or shifts in offensive play-calling strategies can also move the market. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in traders’ expectations and impact the price of contracts in this market.