TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Sam Darnold: 150+
- Kalshi
Sam Darnold: 150+ - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 2, 2026
Time left: 02h:50m:01s
$
This event tracks passing yard milestones for specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between Chicago and Seattle. The outcome depends on whether the designated player achieves various passing yard thresholds during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if the player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price unless the required passing yards are met. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all statistics include overtime periods. The event resolves based on actual statistics if the player participates in any play after the first half.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it might indicate that traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent different perspectives on the same event.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yardage totals from the Chicago versus Seattle game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yardage statistics, as reported by the official NFL data sources, will determine which outcome corresponds to the actual result. Traders who correctly predicted the passing yardage range will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health, such as injuries or illness, would significantly impact trading activity. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict adverse conditions for passing, could also shift probabilities. Additionally, late-breaking news about key receivers being unavailable or changes in coaching strategies could move the market. Finally, large volume trades by informed participants can also cause noticeable price fluctuations in this market.