TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Sam Darnold: 1+
- Kalshi
Sam Darnold: 1+ - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 2, 2026
Time left: 02h:17m:37s
$
These markets focus on predicting the number of passing touchdowns achieved by specific quarterbacks during an upcoming football game. The outcomes depend entirely on the players' performance in terms of scoring through aerial plays. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of success for the designated quarterback.
These markets resolve based on whether specified quarterbacks achieve particular thresholds of passing touchdowns in the full game, including overtime. All contracts are designated as protected: if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the required touchdowns are recorded, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after halftime, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may initially incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market tends to aggregate information from a wider range of participants. Over time, the odds on Kalshi may converge with sportsbook odds as more information becomes available and the event draws closer, though discrepancies can still occur due to differing market participants and risk appetites. It's common to see prediction markets outperform traditional odds in accuracy.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment regarding the potential number of passing touchdowns in the game.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored by each team in the Chicago versus Seattle game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the settlement of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor either a passing or running game, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or player matchups could also move the market. Finally, significant betting activity or large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and influence price movements.