TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Caleb Williams: 26+
- Kalshi
Caleb Williams: 26+ - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 2, 2026
Time left: 00h:55m:13s
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This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with receivers. The outcome depends on whether each player meets or exceeds predetermined completion thresholds. Markets adjust based on player participation and actual game performance.
All markets in this event evaluate passing completions by designated quarterbacks in the Chicago vs Seattle game scheduled for Nov 2, 2026, with thresholds set at 16+, 21+, and 26+ completions for both Sam Darnold and Caleb Williams. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly based on the total number of passing completions they record during the game. All markets operate independently, meaning each threshold for each quarterback has its own resolution criteria. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, however, is driven purely by supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. While sportsbooks may initially set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market can dynamically adjust as new information emerges or as sentiment shifts among participants. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on player performance, weather conditions, or strategic game plans.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions in the game between Chicago and Seattle will be sourced from official NFL statistics. The market will settle to the value corresponding to the actual number of passing completions achieved during the game, as recorded by the NFL. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to the game. News regarding key player injuries – particularly the quarterback or wide receivers for either team – would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected number of passing completions. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced during the week could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis regarding team matchups or offensive schemes could contribute to price fluctuations in this market.