TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks touchdown performance by individual players in an upcoming football game, applying specific participation-based settlement rules for protected contracts. The outcome depends on whether designated players achieve specified touchdown thresholds during the full match, including overtime.
All markets are designated as protected contracts, meaning settlement depends on both touchdown achievement and player participation timelines. If a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the exact touchdown threshold is met, in which case actual statistics determine settlement. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles purely on actual touchdown statistics, regardless of first-half involvement. Penalty-nullified plays where a player lines up but the play is stopped before the snap do not count toward participation or touchdown totals. Players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protection mechanism applies exclusively to full-game contracts with 'at least' or 'more than' payout criteria, and all settlements include overtime periods. Passing touchdowns do not count toward player totals, while team defense/special teams selections settle based solely on actual touchdowns without player participation exceptions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public perception and team news, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or analytical approaches. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event draws nearer. Analyzing both can provide a well-rounded perspective.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the Chicago versus Green Bay game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and their resulting payouts shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Chicago Bears or the Green Bay Packers would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift expectations. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news related to team morale or internal conflicts could influence trader sentiment and affect the prices in this market.